Thursday, February 4, 2010

DEMOCRACY UNDER SIEGE

Is democracy under siege in Pakistan? The answer is both yes and no. It is no if we take a textbook approach to politics. The standard argument is that state institutions are more important than the individuals who occupy key positions. These individuals come and go but the primacy of institutions should not be compromised. Current political challengers are being faced by some people who hold key positions in the government, they may be under siege, but not the political institutions or democracy. The answer is yes if we focus on the operational dynamics of state institutions and processes.Institutions do not mean bricks, walls, furniture and files. When do not mean bricks, walls,furniture and files. When individuals interact with institutions or when institutions deal with each other, the folk occupying key positions matter. Their disposition and agenda, as well as how these change over time, influence institutional disposition and agenda. The survival and collapse of institutions depend on personal, group and corporate and professional, group and corporate and professional interests of the key individuals in these institutions.

Wednesday, February 3, 2010

EARTHQUAK RISK OF BANGLADESH

ASM Maksud Kamal, National Adviser on Tsunami, cyclone and Earthquake Risk of the Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme, told UNB reporter Rafiqul Islam that Dhaka is highly vulnerable to great damage from an earthquake under the Madhupur Rault, as the phenomenal uarbanisation, density of population and high-rise structures are growing fast here.

"We can't even imagine how much causalities and economic losses will be there in the city in case of a apowerful tremor originating from Madhupur Fault" he said.

According to a government study, over 130,000 people will die instantly while over 130,000 will be injured and need to be hospitalized if a 7.5 magnitude earthquake from Madhupur Fault jolts the city.

In case of an 8-magnitude earthquake from plate boundary Fault-2, the study says, there will be about 70,000 instant deaths while over 80,000 others will need to be admitted to hospital. In this case, the casualties will be less despite stronger tremor because of distance from the epicentre.

The incidence of earthquake has become too common across the world with the recent one hitting Haiti, leaving some 200,000 people dead. In 2004, Indian Ocean tsunami killed at least 230,000 people across a dozen countries.
Adequate preparations are needed to minimize casualties and loss of property in the event of any possible devastating earthquake, as Dhaka is highly vulnerable to tremors under the Madhupur Fault, 90 miles from the capital.


Comprehensive Disaster Management Programme (CDMP) under Food and Disaster Management Ministry counducted the study with the help of Asian Disaster Preparedness Centre (ADPC).

The United nations Development Programme (UNDP), UK Department for International Development (DFID) and European Commission provided financial support for the research project conducted from February 2008 to August 2009.

The study reveals that at least 10 major hospityals in the capaital will be destroyed and over 200 hospitals and clinics partially destroyed in case of a 7.5 magnitude quake, mounting pressure on the city's other hospitals and clinics to treat the possible huge injured people.

It shows that only 24,000 hospital beds will be available on the day the quake will strike for the use of the already-admitted patients and earthquake-injured people after the 7.5 jolt, which is only 41 percent of the demand.

A week after the quake, only 54 percent of the beds will be available for use while after a month, 72 percent will be come available, the study said.

About 37,000 hospital beds, which is only 63 percent of requirement, will be available for the treatment of injured people on the day of an 8 magnitude earthquake. About 76 percent of the beds will be back in service after a week while about 87 percent will be fully operational after a month.